770 
 WTNT41 KNHC 240258
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008
 
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
 CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
 FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7.  RAIN
 BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND
 ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
 FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.  FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION
 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS
 PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS.  SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
 LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
 DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
 
 THE DOWNGRADE BASED ON WINDS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS
 SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
 FLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
 COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
 BY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION
 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
 ITS NORTH.  AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...MOST MODELS FORECAST THE
 STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING FAY TO PERHAPS MEANDER OR
 EVEN REMAIN STATIONARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...FURTHER EXACERBATING
 THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.  MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON
 WHAT BECOMES OF FAY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME...SUCH
 AS THE GFS...FORECASTING A BRISK MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
 OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS CALLING FOR FAY
 TO HANG AROUND THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH 120 HOURS.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE...SHOWING A VERY SLOW
 NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 30.9N  87.1W    30 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 31.3N  88.6W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 31.2N  90.3W    25 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 35.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB