579 
 WTNT41 KNHC 231439
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008
  
 FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION
 OVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
 THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE
 DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
 BANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE
 CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
 STORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS
 THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING
 SHOULD BEGIN.
  
 THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING
 WESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY
 MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
 THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY
 IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
 AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY
 STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION
 PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 30.1N  85.6W    40 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  86.8W    40 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  88.4W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 30.6N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.7N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 31.0N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  90.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     28/1200Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA