255 
 WTNT41 KNHC 222027
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
  
 THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS
 NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
 OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A
 PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY
 COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
 HOURS.
  
 THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
 4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
 UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN
 SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A
 GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST
 TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS
 EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. 
  
 REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/2100Z 29.8N  83.2W    40 KT
  12HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.1W    40 KT
  24HR VT     23/1800Z 30.2N  85.9W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     26/1800Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     27/1800Z 32.0N  91.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
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