066 
 WTNT41 KNHC 220300
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
  
 FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND
 THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
 WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
 FLORIDA COAST.  THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS
 DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WSR-88D
 VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND
 EAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THAT
 RADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING.
 
 EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF
 THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING
 WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON
 A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE
 LAST CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. 
 SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE
 SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WHILE THE
 GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE
 PANHANDLE.  LATER...AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
 ANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
 BLOCKS FAY'S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS
 ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
 THE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS
 AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  IF THE MORE
 SOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME
 CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND
 24 HOURS...BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK
 OVER WATER...PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN
 WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG
 THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL
 CONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS
 FAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...REQUIRING THE
 ISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
  
 REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0300Z 29.3N  81.4W    50 KT
  12HR VT     22/1200Z 29.4N  82.3W    40 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.6N  83.7W    35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
  36HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.3W    35 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     24/0000Z 30.4N  86.7W    35 KT...NEAR COAST
  72HR VT     25/0000Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     26/0000Z 31.2N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB