767 
 WTNT41 KNHC 212032
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
  
 NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION
 HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM
 PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
 REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND
 RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
 50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE
 NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE
 COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL
 WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. 
 
 FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
 THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
 THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE
 AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE. 
 
 SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
 COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER
 THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
 THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED
 THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
 GULF COAST.    
  
 REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/2100Z 29.4N  81.4W    50 KT
  12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.8W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.4N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA