619 
 WTNT41 KNHC 211441
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
  
 THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
 FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST
 MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND
 FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION
 MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING
 RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT
 APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER
 CORE.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
 STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
 INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD
 BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
 THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY
 SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
 POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
 OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
  
 STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
 BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
 DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
 SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
 OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
 YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
 OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
 THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.
  
 REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 29.3N  80.8W    50 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.5N  81.6W    50 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 29.6N  82.7W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 29.8N  84.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     25/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA