324 
 WTNT41 KNHC 210300
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
 
 FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF
 THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D
 RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. 
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM
 HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
 WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE.  WSR-88D
 VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE
 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  THE MOST
 RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
 HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
 FAY IN A FEW HOURS.
 
 A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE
 MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
 HOURS.  BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
 FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
 STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
 INTENSIFICATION.  ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
 PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.  A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
 RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND
 SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED
 BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS
 THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  IF
 FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE
 TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT
 TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. 
 IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD
 WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.
 
 REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
 DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0300Z 28.9N  80.5W    50 KT
  12HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.4N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     22/1200Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     23/0000Z 30.1N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     26/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB