398 
 WTNT41 KNHC 201444
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
  
 FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED
 TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
 SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY
 OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. 
 SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED
 WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
 SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE
 TO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS
 SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
 LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP
 THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR.
  
 FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...ABOUT 3 KNOTS...
 WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD
 STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL
 FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA
 FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT
 BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN
 FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
 MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE
 OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL
 MODELS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/1500Z 28.6N  80.6W    45 KT
  12HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.6W    45 KT
  24HR VT     21/1200Z 29.4N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     22/0000Z 29.8N  82.2W    35 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     23/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA