768 
 WTNT41 KNHC 200855
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
  
 TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY
 REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
 HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
 MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL
 THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE
 CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A
 TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG
 ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
 OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO
 THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND
 ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF
 80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
 SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO
 BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING
 SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT
 EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
 HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
 FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS
 CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
 INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY
 TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE
 BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
 OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
 THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER
 TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO
 HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
 OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW
 AFTER 72 HOURS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0900Z 28.2N  80.6W    45 KT...JUST INLAND
  12HR VT     20/1800Z 28.8N  80.6W    50 KT
  24HR VT     21/0600Z 29.3N  80.9W    60 KT
  36HR VT     21/1800Z 29.6N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     22/0600Z 30.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  84.1W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART