074 
 WTNT41 KNHC 192043
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
  
 FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
 STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
 AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
 KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
 CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
 THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
 IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
 REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
 AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
 IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
 AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS
 FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
 NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
 GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
 GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
 WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON. 
  
 THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
 FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/2100Z 27.3N  81.0W    55 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     20/0600Z 28.2N  80.5W    55 KT...OVER WATER
  24HR VT     20/1800Z 29.0N  80.2W    65 KT
  36HR VT     21/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W    65 KT
  48HR VT     21/1800Z 30.0N  81.4W    65 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     22/1800Z 30.5N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     23/1800Z 31.4N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA