094 
 WTNT41 KNHC 191445
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
  
 DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
 WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
 CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
 SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
 OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB.  FAY IS
 FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO
 48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE
 FLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
 RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
 AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE
 SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
 STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
 RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.
  
 FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
 WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH
 IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS
 PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO
 SLOW DOWN AND THEN...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER...THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR
 THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
 GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE
 UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR
 GEORGIA.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/1500Z 26.7N  81.3W    50 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     20/0000Z 27.9N  80.9W    45 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     20/1200Z 28.9N  80.6W    40 KT...OVER WATER
  36HR VT     21/0000Z 29.5N  80.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER
  48HR VT     21/1200Z 30.0N  80.9W    45 KT...OVER WATER
  72HR VT     22/1200Z 30.6N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     23/1200Z 31.0N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
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