858 
 WTNT21 KNHC 162033
 TCMAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
  
 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
 HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CINEFUEGOS...AND
 MATANZAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
 PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.  A
 HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
 THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND
 SANCTI SPIRITUS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
 FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
 GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANMO.  A TROPICAL STORM
 WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
 THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED
 THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
 SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM
 WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE.  A TROPICAL
 STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
 HAITI.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
 JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
  
 INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
 PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  75.2W AT 16/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
 34 KT....... 90NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  75.2W AT 16/2100Z
 AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  74.6W
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N  77.0W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N  79.1W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 34 KT...100NE  75SE  40SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N  80.7W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 35NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N  81.6W...INLAND OVER CUBA
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 35NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W...OVER WATER
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT...125NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N  82.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.0N  82.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N  75.2W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN