408 
 WTNT41 KNHC 160239
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
  
 WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
 IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
 WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOUR OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...OUTFLOW IN ALL
 QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD MOTION...IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME
 THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA AND
 MOVE ...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY MORNING.
 IF SO...A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE
 SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA.  ONLY
 THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE
 STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
 STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...MAKING FAY
 A STRONG HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE
 EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT
 SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER OVER WATER IN THIS
 FORECAST.  
  
 BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING
 CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES
 AT 12 KNOTS.  FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
 WESTERN ATLANTIC.  BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
 FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS
 PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
 NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME
 EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN
 GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I
 AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT
 TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.
  
 IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN
 INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO
 THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE
 ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0300Z 18.7N  70.8W    40 KT
  12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.8N  72.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  75.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  77.8W    50 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
  48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N  79.5W    60 KT
  72HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N  81.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     20/0000Z 27.5N  83.0W    75 KT
 120HR VT     21/0000Z 31.0N  84.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA