075 
 WTNT41 KNHC 152127
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
 
 ...CORRECTION OF THE 72H POSITION TEXT 
  
 REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
 INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
 IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
 AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO
 JUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE
 WESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON
 THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF
 THE ATLANTIC SEASON.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
 LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
 WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
 OR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR.  WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
 AGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH-
 NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS
 IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL
 TRACK.  THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA
 PENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
 FLORIDA.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
 THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
 FLORIDA.  COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
 INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. 
 THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY
 TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS
 NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
 
 THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL
 BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE.  THE
 FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
 AND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  SIGNIFICANT
 STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH
 COAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE
 STORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A
 PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
 THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
 THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE
 TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
 FORECAST.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/2100Z 18.5N  69.4W    35 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     16/0600Z 18.9N  71.3W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     16/1800Z 19.4N  74.1W    35 KT...OVER WATER
  36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  76.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.2W    40 KT
  72HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  81.0W    40 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
  96HR VT     19/1800Z 26.5N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
 120HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN