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 876 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 072245
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014
 330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014
 
 The area of low pressure located about 1000 nmi southwest of the
 southern tip of Baja California has acquired enough organized
 convection near the well-defined low-level circulation center to be
 classified as a tropical cyclone. Although convection has been
 waxing and waning over the past 12 hours or so, a new burst of deep
 convection with cloud tops as cold as -83C have developed near and
 just south of the center. The system is being designated as
 Tropical Storm Fausto based on wind data from two earlier ASCAT
 passes at 1704 UTC and 1757 UTC that indicated reliable wind speed
 of 35-38 kt in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow is
 good and continues to expand in all quadrants.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt and is based primarily on
 microwave satellite data. Fausto is expected to move westward for
 the next day or so and then turn toward the west-northwest after
 that as the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a
 deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. By Days 4 and 5, a
 weakness is forecast by all of the global models to develop between
 140W-150W longitude, which should allow Fausto to turn more toward
 the northwest. Although some of the models show the cyclone turning
 into the ridge and beginning to recurve, the official forecast only
 shows a slight stair-step in the track since the GFS and ECMWF
 models show the ridge building back westward at the end of the Day 5
 period. The official advisory track is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
 models since they have a better depiction of the small tropical
 cyclone.
 
 Fausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment consisting
 of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level regime, and over
 sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for at least the next 72
 hours. These conditions should allow for at least some gradual
 strengthening to occur, and the official forecast closely follows a
 blend of the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM models. However, those
 intensity forecasts are based on the medium BAM model, which takes
 the cyclone well north of the official forecast track and into
 strong shear conditions and over colder water by Days 4 and 5. If
 Fausto fallows a low-latitude track as indicated by the NHC
 forecast, then strengthening rather than weakening could occur in
 the latter periods.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/2230Z  9.5N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z  9.7N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z 10.0N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z 10.7N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z 11.5N 130.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  10/1800Z 12.6N 136.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  11/1800Z 14.7N 140.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  12/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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