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 141 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 202033
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008
  
 FAUSTO CONTINUES DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE BOTH IN THE INFRARED AND
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
 ESTIMATES REMAIN STEADY AT A 4.5 AT 18Z.  HOWEVER...ADT SUGGESTS A
 SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER CYCLONE WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER
 ABOUT ONE HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES.  AN EARLIER AMSU
 OVERPASS ANALYZED FAUSTO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 82 AND 87 KT FROM
 THE CIMSS AND CIRA METHODS...RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS A
 BLEND OF THESE VALUES AT 80 KT.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT HURRICANE FORCE
 WINDS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON
 SOCORRO ISLAND...THOUGH THESE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE AS THE
 STATION IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 35 M.
  
 THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A HEADING OF 310
 DEGREES AT 11 KT...THOUGH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE LEFT IS IMPLIED BY
 THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES.  FAUSTO'S TRACK IS BEING DETERMINED
 BY THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND
 POSSIBLY INFLUENCED AS WELL BY THE DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST
 OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA.  AS FAUSTO BEGINS TO DECAY IN ABOUT 24 TO
 36 HOURS...IT SHOULD INCREASINGLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
 OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A BLEND
 OF THE UKMET...GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO
 THE FORECAST ISSUED PREVIOUSLY.
 
 FAUSTO IS LIKELY TO BEGIN A RATHER QUICK DECAY AS IT WILL BE MOVING
 OVER COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
 THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE
 NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
 LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED FROM
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT
 LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE AT DAY 4 OR 5.
  
 A 1250Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/2100Z 18.7N 113.4W    80 KT
  12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.7N 114.9W    70 KT
  24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.7N 117.3W    60 KT
  36HR VT     22/0600Z 21.2N 119.3W    45 KT
  48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 121.1W    35 KT
  72HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     24/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
  
 
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