632 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 192045
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008
  
 WHILE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT FAUSTO COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN...IT
 APPEARS THAT IT HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...A BIT EARLIER THAN
 GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
 CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT WAS VISIBLE EARLIER TODAY HAVE WARMED
 CONSIDERABLY.  IN ADDITION...BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
 OF THE CYCLONE HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS DECREASED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF DVORAK-T
 AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. THERE IS A 6 TO 12 HOUR SMALL WINDOW
 OF OPPORTUNITY THAT FAUSTO COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN...BUT AS A
 COMPROMISE BETWEEN THAT SCENARIO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
 WEAKENING...THE 12 HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE
 CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FIVE-DAY
 PERIOD...SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
 AND A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.
 
 FAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 310/7...JUST A TAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST
 OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IS
 EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO SHOULD
 PROBABLY START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE
 RIGHT...CLOSE TO THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/2100Z 15.5N 110.2W    75 KT
  12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.3N 111.4W    75 KT
  24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 113.0W    70 KT
  36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KT
  48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W    50 KT
  72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N 125.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     24/1800Z 24.0N 129.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB