367 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 191459
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008
  
 SLOWLY BUT SURELY...FAUSTO APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING.  AN EYE IS
 NOT APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE QUITE
 COLD RIGHT OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
 INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
 ESTIMATES...WHICH WERE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 90 KT FROM TAFB.  FAUSTO
 WILL REMAIN OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 27 CELSIUS FOR
 ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS...SO A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. 
 BEYOND THAT TIME AS WATERS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST
 TRACK...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...GRADUALLY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS
 BUT THEN A MORE RAPID DECLINE AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE STRONG
 SST GRADIENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY GREATER
 PEAK INTENSITY AT 12 HOURS BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 FAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 305/7...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
 BEFORE...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST OFF THE
 WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT HEADING IS
 FORECAST UNTIL THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD OVER THE
 PACIFIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO WILL PROBABLY
 START TO TURN LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO THE MORE
 NORTHERLY TRACKS FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF THAN THE OTHER
 MODELS...SINCE THESE TWO MODELS LIKELY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC
 DEPICTION OF THE DEEP CIRCULATION.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE
 FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO KEEP UP WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
 SOLUTIONS.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/1500Z 15.2N 110.0W    80 KT
  12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.9N 111.1W    85 KT
  24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 112.7W    80 KT
  36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.1N 114.6W    75 KT
  48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N 116.8W    65 KT
  72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 126.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     24/1200Z 24.0N 130.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB