900 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 180817
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
  
 LITTLE CHANGE IN FAUSTO'S CLOUD PATTERN THIS EVENING...WITH AN
 INTENSE BANDING FEATURE RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
 CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AT
 60 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
 SHIPS/LGEM...THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL
 STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...GRADUAL
 WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
  
 LARGE SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A TRANSIENT MID-
 LEVEL PERTURBATION OR VORTICITY MAXIMA PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD
 OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE MODELS THEN REVEAL THIS FEATURE MOVING WESTWARD
 IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS AND
 WEAKENS BY DAY 4.  SUBSEQUENTLY...RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM THE
 SOUTHWEST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
 CREATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST IS DERIVED FROM A VARIABLE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS.
  
 WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON 0058Z QUIKSCAT.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0900Z 13.3N 106.8W    60 KT
  12HR VT     18/1800Z 13.7N 108.2W    65 KT
  24HR VT     19/0600Z 14.3N 109.7W    70 KT
  36HR VT     19/1800Z 14.9N 111.0W    75 KT
  48HR VT     20/0600Z 15.7N 112.5W    75 KT
  72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.7N 116.6W    65 KT
  96HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W    55 KT
 120HR VT     23/0600Z 20.5N 125.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA