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 975 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 052033
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  21
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018
 
 Fabio is looking more ragged on satellite imagery this afternoon.
 Cloud tops have warmed and Dvorak classifications from all
 agencies are decreasing quickly.  The initial intensity has been
 lowered to 45 kt, and given the degradation of the cloud pattern
 over the past few hours, this could be generous.  The cyclone will
 remain embedded within its current stable environment and over cool
 SSTs for the next few days which will cause it to weaken further.
 The NHC intensity forecast now calls for Fabio to become a tropical
 depression within 12 hours and become a remnant low between 24 and
 36 hours.  The remnant low will then gradually spin down over the
 following few days, eventually degenerating into a weak trough
 around day 4 or 5.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 295/15, and Fabio will likely
 continue on its current west-northwest to northwest heading for the
 next 24 hours or so.  A decrease in forward speed and a gradual
 turn toward the west are likely after Fabio becomes a remnant low
 and becomes steered primarily by the surrounding low-level easterly
 flow.  There is a little more spread in the model guidance this
 advisory cycle, with the speed being the main source of
 uncertainty, and the overall envelope has shifted south. Since I
 have little reason to favor any one model, the official track
 forecast generally lies between HCCA and the previous advisory, and
 it has been shifted only slightly toward the south throughout the
 forecast period.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/2100Z 20.6N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 21.6N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  06/1800Z 22.7N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  07/0600Z 23.5N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  07/1800Z 24.1N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/1800Z 25.0N 139.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/1800Z 25.5N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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