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 281 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 051437
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  20
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018
 
 Fabio's convective structure has continued to degrade over the past
 several hours, and convective banding has become very limited.
 Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased
 accordingly and the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt based on
 a blend of the subjective data-T and CI numbers.  Fabio is moving
 over 23 to 24 deg C waters, and these cold waters will cause the
 cyclone to continue weakening for the next day or so until it
 eventually becomes a remnant low by the weekend.  The new intensity
 forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and closely
 follows the multi-model consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 305/15. An SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC
 indicated that the center of Fabio was located a little to the
 northwest of the previous estimate. For that reason, the new NHC
 track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory for the
 first 36 hours, but is otherwise very similar. Fabio will continue
 on a west-northwest to northwest heading for the next 24-36 hours
 while it remains a tropical cyclone. Beyond that time, the remnants
 of Fabio will slow down and be steered more west-northwestward to
 westward by the low-level trade wind flow. All of the dynamical
 models remain in very good agreement on the track of Fabio, and the
 NHC forecast is still close to HCCA and TVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/1500Z 20.2N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  06/0000Z 21.3N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  06/1200Z 22.5N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  07/0000Z 23.5N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  07/1200Z 24.2N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/1200Z 25.4N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/1200Z 26.0N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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