615 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 050248
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  18
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018
 
 Cloud tops continue to warm near the center of Fabio, and recent
 microwave satellite data indicate that the inner core has collapsed
 with an eye no longer evident. As a result of the convective
 erosion, Dvorak satellite classifications have decreased and only
 supported about 75 kt at 0000 UTC. Since that time, there has been
 further degradation of the convective cloud pattern, so the initial
 intensity has been set a little lower at 70 kt.
 
 The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The
 NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on Fabio maintaining a
 west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the southwestern
 periphery of a stagnant, deep-layer subtropical ridge throughout
 the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just a little south of
 the previous advisory track, and lies close a blend of the HCCA and
 FSSE models.
 
 Fabio is already currently located over 24 deg C sea-surface
 temperatures with colder waters ahead of the cyclone. By 48 h, the
 SSTs will be near 19 deg C. As a result, rapid weakening is expected
 throughout the forecast period, with Fabio becoming a tropical storm
 on Thursday and degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Although
 remnant low status is shown at 120 h, it is quite possible that
 dissipation could occur before then due to the cyclone having been
 located over 20 deg C or less SSTs for more than 48 hours. The new
 intensity forecast follows the weakening trend of the previous
 advisory, and is similar to an average of the more aggressive
 weakening trends of the HCCA and FSSE consensus models, which show
 dissipation at or shortly after 96 h.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 18.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 19.4N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 20.8N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 22.1N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  07/0000Z 23.2N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/0000Z 24.9N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/0000Z 26.2N 138.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/0000Z 27.1N 141.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart