979 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 042053
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018
 
 The convective structure of Fabio has continued to degrade since
 this morning.  A pair of SSMIS passes around 1500 UTC showed that
 deep convection was mostly limited to the eastern half of the
 hurricane, and the eye has since filled in on IR imagery.  The
 initial intensity has been lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of
 data-T and CI numbers from SAB and TAFB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT
 CI number.  The hurricane will be moving over progressively cooler
 SSTs and through a stable environment for the next several days,
 resulting in steady to rapid weakening.  Little change has been made
 to the NHC intensity forecast, which still closely follows the
 intensity consensus and shows Fabio becoming a remnant low within 72
 h.
 
 Likewise, no significant changes have been made to the official
 track forecast.  The hurricane is still moving west-northwestward,
 or 295/13 kt.  As long as Fabio remains a tropical cyclone, it
 should continue on a similar heading and speed as it moves along the
 southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the northeast.  Once
 the cyclone becomes a remnant low, Fabio will likely slow down as it
 becomes steered primarily by the low-level trade wind flow,
 eventually causing it to begin a turn toward the west.  The
 dynamical track guidance remains in very good agreement on the track
 of Fabio, and the NHC forecast is very close to TVCN and HCCA.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/2100Z 17.9N 121.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 18.9N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 20.3N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 21.6N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 22.9N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 25.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/1800Z 26.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  09/1800Z 27.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky