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 031 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 041433
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  16
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018
 
 Fabio's eye has shrunk and become somewhat distorted while still
 being surrounded by very cold cloud tops.  Mainly because of the
 degradation of the eye, Dvorak estimates have decreased slightly,
 and the initial intensity is set at 85 kt based on a blend of the
 numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  The northwest half
 of Fabio's large circulation is now over sub-26C waters, and colder
 waters and a stable environment will likely induce a fast weakening
 rate over the next two days.  Fabio is forecast to weaken to a
 tropical storm in about 24 hours and then degenerate into a remnant
 low by day 3.  The updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows
 the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) guidance, and it is
 a little lower than the previous forecast during the first 48 hours.
 
 The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt.  Fabio will
 be reaching the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge soon,
 allowing the cyclone to turn slightly northwestward through 48
 hours.  Once it becomes a remnant low, Fabio should then turn back
 toward the west-northwest and slow down within the lower-level
 trade wind flow.  There is still not much spread in the track
 guidance, and much like the intensity forecast, the official track
 forecast is closest to the HCCA and FSSE guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 17.2N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 18.2N 122.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 19.6N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  06/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  06/1200Z 22.5N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  07/1200Z 24.7N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/1200Z 26.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  09/1200Z 28.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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