494 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 022033
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018
 
 Fabio's cloud pattern has continued to improve over the past several
 hours.  A banding eye-like feature has appeared in visible imagery,
 but it is not yet evident in IR channels.  A recent ASCAT pass
 around 1730 UTC indicated that the cyclone remains fairly
 asymmetric, but the inner-core has tightened somewhat.  The
 corresponding AMSU microwave imagery at that time indicated that the
 western eyewall was somewhat open, but the latest visible imagery
 suggests that the eyewall may be finally closing off, despite the
 presence of a dry slot that wraps around the western and southern
 portions of the inner core.  A blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB
 and SAB supported an initial intensity of 70 kt at 1800 UTC, and
 given the improvement of the cloud pattern since that time, the
 initial intensity has been raised to 75 kt.
 
 The intensity guidance is dramatically different from 24 hours ago,
 and now most of the guidance keeps Fabio below major hurricane
 strength.  The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low for at
 least the next 3 days, but the hurricane only has about 24 hours
 left to strengthen over warm SSTs.  Beginning around 36 hours, quick
 weakening will occur as it becomes embedded within an unfavorable
 thermodynamic environment.  Given that the inner core of the
 hurricane finally appears to be contracting, the forecast is still
 on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, close to
 the DSHP forecast and similar to the previous advisory.  After that
 time, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids
 through day 5.
 
 The earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the center was a little north
 of the previous estimates, and this has since been confirmed by the
 presence of the banding eye.  The track forecast has therefore been
 adjusted northward accordingly, but otherwise is very similar to the
 previous advisory.  Fabio is still forecast to move west-northwest
 to northwestward over the next 4 to 5 days along the southwestern
 periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The models remain in fairly good
 agreement on the track forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the
 various consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/2100Z 13.8N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 14.4N 113.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 15.5N 115.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 16.6N 118.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 17.9N 121.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 20.8N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 24.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky