560 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 012032
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 300 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018
 
 Fabio's presentation continues to improve on visible, IR, and
 microwave imagery.  Although a pronounced dry slot is still present
 just north and east of the low-level center, convection appears to
 be increasing, suggesting that the cyclone is getting closer to
 closing off its inner core.  The initial intensity has been
 increased to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak fix from TAFB and an
 earlier SATCON estimate of 53 kt.
 
 The statistical intensity guidance continues to forecast a
 remarkable rate of intensification for Fabio over the next two days.
 The DSHP and LGEM models both bring Fabio to near or above category
 5 strength within 48 hours, while the SHIPS RII and DTOPS models
 suggest there is a greater than 50 percent probability of an
 increase of 40 kt over the next 24 hours.  On the other hand, the
 dynamical HWRF and HMON models show only limited strengthening.
 Given that those two models both missed the previous two rapid
 intensification cases this season, and the fact that the warm SSTs
 and very low shear seem indicative of rapid intensification, the
 forecast favors the statistical models, and shows Fabio becoming a
 major hurricane on Tuesday.  By 72 h, Fabio will be moving over
 cooler waters and into a much more stable environment which should
 cause rapid weakening to begin.  Despite the very high rate of
 intensification shown by the NHC forecast, it is actually lower than
 the HCCA and FSSE models, and lies between those and the simple
 intensity consensus IVCN.  By the end of the forecast period, the
 forecast is close to all of the intensity consensus aids.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/11.  A late-arriving WindSat
 pass showed that the center of Fabio was a little north of the
 previous estimate, so the best track and forecast have been
 adjusted slightly in that direction.  Otherwise, no change has been
 made to the track forecast or reasoning.  A mid-level ridge to
 the north should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward at a
 similar forward speed through most of the forecast period.  The NHC
 track forecast remains near the various consensus aids, and falls in
 the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 12.4N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 12.9N 110.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 13.5N 112.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 15.2N 116.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 17.2N 122.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  05/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  06/1800Z 23.0N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky