092 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 010255
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018
 
 The depression is gradually becoming better organized.  Deep
 convective bands have been gaining curvature, but remain limited to
 the southeast of the estimated center.  Since the Dvorak
 classifications are unchanged at 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, the
 initial wind speed is held at that value.  This intensity estimate
 is also consistent with the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the
 University of Wisconsin.  Even though the system is currently not
 very strong, the circulation is quite large with the outer bands
 extending about 300 n mi from the center.
 
 The system is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt.  This general
 motion is expected during the next several days as a mid-level
 ridge to the northeast of the system remains the primary steering
 feature.  The track models are in very good agreement, and only
 small changes were made to the previous NHC prediction.  The
 cyclone is expected to remain out to sea through the forecast
 period.
 
 Environmental conditions are quite ideal for the depression to
 strengthen during the next few days with SSTs of 28-29C, vertical
 wind shear less than 10 kt, and a fairly moist low- to mid-level
 air mass.  The models respond to these favorable conditions by
 unanimously showing the depression becoming a hurricane within the
 next few days.  However, the models disagree on how strong the
 system might get before it reaches cooler waters in a few days.  The
 SHIPS and LGEM models show the system reaching major hurricane
 strength while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models are notably weaker.
 Regardless of how strong the system becomes, the strengthening trend
 should end shortly after 3 days when the cyclone is expected to move
 over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
 environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
 previous one and is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus models.
 This forecast is slightly below the models in the short term as the
 large size of the system could make the initial strengthening
 process more gradual.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0300Z 11.3N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/1200Z 11.7N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  02/0000Z 12.4N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  02/1200Z 13.1N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  03/0000Z 13.7N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  04/0000Z 15.4N 117.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  05/0000Z 17.8N 122.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  06/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi