715 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 180235
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
  
 FABIO HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL
 CYCLONE STATUS OWING TO A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
 CLOUD TOPS TO -50C LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
 A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. FABIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTH-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH
 A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
 IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 FABIO IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE
 MOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND INTO A STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
 FABIO SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY COMPLETE DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS...IF
 NOT SOONER.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER MOVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
 DISSIPATE AFTER 48 HOURS...THE DECOUPLED REMNANT MID- AND
 UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED
 TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN
 THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
 ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  18/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  18/1200Z 25.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  19/0000Z 26.4N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  19/1200Z 27.6N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  20/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART