749 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 171433
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
  
 FABIO IS SPINNING DOWN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 22C. ONLY
 A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION IS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
 ESTIMATED CENTER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE
 TO FALL...AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
 TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND
 SPEED TO 40 KT. THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS APPEAR TO BE
 DECOUPLING DUE TO SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EXPECTED
 INCREASE IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER WATERS AHEAD AND A DRY
 AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
 TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REMNANT LOW LOSING ITS
 IDENTITY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
 THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
 FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.
  
 MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
 IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
 CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE THE
 RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 23.6N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  18/1200Z 25.2N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  19/0000Z 26.5N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/1200Z 27.6N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI