724 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160835
 TCDEP1
  
 HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
 200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
 
 THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES AS DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN
 COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
 SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 70
 KT REPRESENTS A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
 NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FABIO IS PROJECTED TO REACH OCEAN
 WATERS COOLER THAN 29 DEG C WITHIN LESS THAN 48 HOURS...AND AS A
 RESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE
 SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 2...AND THIS IS IN
 REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LGEM GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE VERY COOL WATER
 TEMPERATURES...FABIO COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN
 HERE.
  
 THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM
 MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK
 FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
 ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
 FABIO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE BREAK.  LATER...THE CYCLONE
 COULD SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF NORTH AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
 EFFECT OF THE TROUGH.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE TOP PORTION OF
 THE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 
 THIS WOULD LEAVE THE REMAINING REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY IN THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNTIL IT LOSES ITS
 IDENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
 SOLUTION.
 
 SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
 FABIO SHOULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN A FEW
 DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/0900Z 18.3N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 20.3N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  18/0600Z 23.0N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH