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 199 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160235
 TCDEP1
  
 HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
  
 FABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
 THAT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED AS CLOUD TOP
 TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE WARM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS
 BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. GRADUAL
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FABIO MOVES
 ACROSS A SHARP SST GRADIENT. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT
 TIME AS THE CYCLONE REACHES SUB-23C WATERS BY 24 HOURS WITH EVEN
 COOLER SSTS AHEAD. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS
 SHOULD SHEAR OFF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND FABIO IS FORECAST
 TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN 4
 OR 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
 GUIDANCE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/09. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
 FABIO WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO AN EXPANDING BREAK IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD
 INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. AFTER THE CYCLONE SHEARS
 APART...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
 DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
 AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/0300Z 17.8N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  17/0000Z 19.6N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  17/1200Z 20.9N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  18/0000Z 22.3N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  19/0000Z 25.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0000Z 26.2N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
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