709 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 131435
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
  
 RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS DATA INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS DEVELOPED A
 CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
 BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK ESTIMATES
 AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED AT T3.0...OR 55 KT...AND THE
 UW-CIMSS ADT JUMPED TO ABOUT 75 KT WHEN AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE
 MICROWAVE DATA WAS APPLIED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT
 60 KT FOR NOW...AND FABIO APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
 HURRICANE.
  
 THE MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO MORE ACCURATELY LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER...AND FABIO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT.
 A DEVELOPING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
 BEGINNING TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO...
 AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE OREGON COAST SHOULD
 HELP TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FABIO WILL
 ULTIMATELY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TROUGH BY DAY 5.
 THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS
 TVCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING FABIO...BUT IT DOES NOT
 APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY
 STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED
 OUT...THE SHIPS RI INDEX FOR A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS IS ONLY AT 2 PERCENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST WILL THEREFORE NOT SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT
 STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED BEFORE FABIO REACHES COLDER WATER
 IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/1500Z 15.0N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 15.6N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  14/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  15/1200Z 16.8N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  16/1200Z 18.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  17/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG