150 
 FOPZ12 KNHC 020846
 PWSEP2
 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006               
 0900 UTC WED AUG 02 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
 LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)
  
 20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 149N 1315W 34 62  10(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
  12 149N 1315W 50 10   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
  12 149N 1315W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  24 152N 1344W 34  1  40(41)   7(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
  24 152N 1344W 50  X   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  24 152N 1344W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  
  36 155N 1371W 34  X   3( 3)  22(25)   9(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
  36 155N 1371W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  36 155N 1371W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  
  48 157N 1400W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   6(26)   X(26)   X(26)
  48 157N 1400W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  48 157N 1400W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  
  
  72 160N 1455W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   2(13)   1(14)
  72 160N 1455W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  72 160N 1455W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
  96 160N 1505W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
  96 160N 1505W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
  96 160N 1505W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
 120 160N 1550W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 120 160N 1550W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 120 160N 1550W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     45     45      40      40      35      25      25
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART