061 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 012046
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006
  
 ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS
 IT DID THIS MORNING...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY
 UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A
 GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3...ULTIMATELY TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
 REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/13...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS 6 HOUR MOTION.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
 FABIO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
 NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
 WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS
 BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/2100Z 15.0N 127.3W    45 KT
  12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W    50 KT
  24HR VT     02/1800Z 15.7N 132.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     03/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W    45 KT
  48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.2N 137.4W    45 KT
  72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 147.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N 152.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH