486 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 010255
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
 800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006
  
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
 TO 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 31 KT FROM UW
 CIMSS ADT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
 STORM FABIO WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  FABIO IS EXPECTED
 TO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
 OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
 SHOWN THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
 ENCOUNTER A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF INCREASING
 VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND
 PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ARE
 EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING WITH MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
 SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE
 CYCLONE LONGER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE
 BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. 
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12.   GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO
 CAMPS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
 THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
 CONVERSELY...THE BAM MODELS SHOW A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOUR
 WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BEND TOWARD THE WEST THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS
 ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.  THIS ALSO
 REPRESENTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 14.5N 123.3W    35 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.8N 125.0W    40 KT
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W    45 KT
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W    45 KT
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 16.3N 132.0W    40 KT
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN