058 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 060834
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2011
  
 EUGENE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23 DEG C WATER. ONLY A
 SMALL AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE OUTER
 CIRCULATION...WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATING
 ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER.  IN SPITE OF THE NEARLY TOTAL LOSS OF DEEP
 CONVECTION...SATELLITE PICTURES AND A 0515 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST
 THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAINS VIGOROUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS REDUCED TO 35 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB/SAB SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC AND SEVERAL 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS
 FROM THE ASCAT PASS.  A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AS
 THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES EVEN COOLER WATERS. EUGENE IS FORECAST TO
 DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION
 EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
 EUGENE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11.  IN ABOUT
 36 HR...EUGENE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
 SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...
 EUGENE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-
 SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
 TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS AN
 UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE MULTI-MODEL TVCE
 CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0900Z 18.9N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  06/1800Z 19.2N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  07/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  07/1800Z 19.8N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  08/0600Z 19.9N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN