302 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 050835
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011
  
 EUGENE CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
 COOLER WATERS. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED THAT THE INNER
 CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DECAYED FURTHER. THE DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN QUICKLY SHRINKING...AND THAT WHICH REMAINS
 PRIMARILY LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
 CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF T AND
 CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...
 WITH THE WEAKENING PERHAPS BECOMING MORE RAPID ONCE EUGENE REACHES
 SUB-24C WATERS AFTER 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ONE AND AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS AIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW FORECAST WITHIN 2 DAYS...
 SOONER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
  
 EUGENE REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE STILL
 285/11.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD HOLD
 SWAY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE EUGENE TO
 MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED.  ONCE EUGENE WEAKENS
 FURTHER AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...A DECELERATION OF THE
 FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHTER TRADE WIND
 FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
 THAT DISREGARDS THE HWRF.
  
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON A 0546 UTC ASCAT PASS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/0900Z 17.6N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 18.1N 123.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  06/0600Z 18.7N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  06/1800Z 19.2N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  07/0600Z 19.7N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/0600Z 20.5N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN