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 131 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 042032
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
 200 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2011
  
 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF EUGENE HAVE NOT
 WARMED MUCH...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE
 PAST FEW HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/5.5 FROM BOTH
 TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS
 IS T5.0/5.8.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A
 BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS.  EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS
 IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C AND INTO A DRIER...
 MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES TO CLOSELY
 FOLLOW LGEM...THE HIGHEST OF THE GUIDANCE...THROUGH THE FIRST 24
 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER WEAKENING
 THAN INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
 IVCN.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 96 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY
 THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS.
 
 EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/12 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
 THAT GENERAL HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME
 DECELERATION AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS RIGHT ON
 TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
 ALTHOUGH A 1658 UTC ASCAT PASS ONLY SKIMMED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
 HURRICANE...IT DID INDICATE THAT THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE TOO
 LARGE ON THAT SIDE.  THE RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN ALL
 QUADRANTS...BUT WITHOUT REAL GROUND TRUTH...THEY COULD STILL BE A
 LITTLE GENEROUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/2100Z 17.2N 120.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 17.6N 121.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 18.2N 124.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 18.9N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 19.5N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 20.5N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  08/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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