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 954 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 040900
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17...CORRECTED
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
 200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2011
  
 CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
 
 EUGENE HAS NOT WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
 IT HAS BEGUN TO TRAVERSE A SHARP GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH THE SIZE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
 SHRUNK...IT REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRIC.  IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP
 TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY COOLED AROUND A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM
 DIAMETER EYE.  GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
 AT 110 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF T/CI NUMBERS FROM
 TAFB/SAB.  THE MAIN QUESTION NOW IS HOW QUICKLY THE RATE OF
 WEAKENING WILL BE NOW THAT EUGENE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
 COOLER WATERS.  WEAKENING MAY INITIALLY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
 EUGENE HAVING SOME OF THE CLASSIC CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR
 HURRICANE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  FOR THIS REASON...THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING
 AFTER THAT...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A IVCN/FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 EUGENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72
 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 4-5 DAYS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
 BEFORE.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS
 ADVISORIES.  EUGENE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
 ITS NORTH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE FORWARD SPEED
 OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW CONSIDERABLY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
 AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF WHICH CONTINUES TO LIE WELL NORTH OF THE
 MAIN TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/0900Z 16.7N 117.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 17.3N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 18.1N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 18.7N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 19.3N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 20.3N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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