681 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 022035
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
  
 EUGENE HAS FINALLY BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN EYE...ALBEIT A LARGE AND
 RAGGED ONE.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
 ARE BOTH 5.0...AND GIVEN THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
 IMAGERY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90
 KT.  A 1555 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED
 MICROWAVE EYE...BUT THIS IMAGE...ALONG WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE
 IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT SOME DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE THE
 EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
 UNTIL IT REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE NEW
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND NOW EXPLICITLY CALLS FOR THE
 HURRICANE TO REACH MAJOR STATUS...IN LINE WITH ALL THE STATISTICAL
 GUIDANCE.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED AND CLOSELY
 FOLLOWS THE LGEM.  IT IS NOW LIKELY...ABOUT A 4 IN 5 CHANCE...THAT
 EUGENE WILL REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT SOME POINT DURING THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 EUGENE MAY FINALLY BE DECELERATING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 ESTIMATED TO BE 285/12.  THERE IS NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING TO ADD TO
 THE FORECAST REASONING...AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
 FORECAST WAS REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
 IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A HAIR
 SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/2100Z 14.2N 110.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 14.7N 112.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 15.5N 114.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 16.2N 116.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 16.9N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 18.2N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  07/1800Z 20.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG