203 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 011432
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
 800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
  
 EUGENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST
 SEVERAL HOURS. A LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND A
 CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES.
 IN ADDITION...AN 0853 UTC AMSR-E PASS REVEALED THE FORMATION OF A
 MID-LEVEL EYE...DISPLACED ABOUT 20 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC HAVE
 INCREASED TO 3.5...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE AT 3.8. BASED
 ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT
 FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN MOVING RIGHT OF TRACK
 SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
 BE 295/9. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
 SINCE YESTERDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
 CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD GUIDE
 EUGENE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48
 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 120-130W ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE
 TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. EUGENE SHOULD TURN A BIT TO THE
 RIGHT AT THAT POINT AND ITS FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
 AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
  
 MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EUGENE HAS NOT PREVENTED THE
 CYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
 RATE OF DEVELOPMENT OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY.  THERE IS NO REASON TO
 BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR RATE OF DEVELOPMENT WOULD NOT CONTINUE...
 WITH THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINING THE CURRENT LEVEL OF SHEAR FOR THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR COULD
 RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BEYOND WHAT THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST INDICATES BEFORE EUGENE REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION THIS
 CYCLE...WITH THE GFDL MODEL STILL CONTINUING TO FORECAST EUGENE TO
 BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
 ADJUSTED UPWARD...CLOSE TO LGEM...BUT BELOW THE IVCN/ICON MODEL
 CONSESUS AIDS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/1500Z 12.3N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 12.9N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 13.6N 107.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 14.3N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 15.0N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  04/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  05/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  06/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN