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 592 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 010836
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
 200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
  
 SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH EUGENE
 HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW APPEARS
 COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT AT 0000
 UTC...BUT THE BANDING HAS INCREASED FURTHER SINCE THAT TIME.  THE
 ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS NOW T3.5 SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 RAISED TO A COMPROMISE OF 50 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/10.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
 OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA EXTENDS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF
 MEXICO...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE EUGENE ON A
 CONSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 96
 HOURS.  MYSTERIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
 PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
 DISINTEGRATING BY 72 HOURS AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW EUGENE TO TURN
 NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC
 TRACK FORECAST DISREGARDS THESE MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS
 OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE
 FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS BUT COMES BACK IN
 LINE BY 120 HOURS.
  
 EUGENE SO FAR HAS BEEN ABLE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN MODERATE EASTERLY
 SHEAR...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO EXPECT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGE IN
 THIS TREND.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72
 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER BOUND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
 FIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING TREND AND
 IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THEREAFTER.
 
 THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0347 UTC ASCAT
 PASS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/0900Z 11.6N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 12.2N 104.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 12.9N 106.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 13.6N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 14.2N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 15.5N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 18.5N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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