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 543 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 311440
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011
  
 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE STRUCTURE OF A SHEARED
 TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY
 NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CIRCULAR MASS OF CONVECTION.
 NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
 DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COOLING AND
 THE APPEARANCE OF A NEW BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK
 SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND
 SAB...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO TROPICAL
 STORM STRENGTH.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD
 PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE. THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE
 BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY
 OF 35 KT.
 
 THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THUS
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.  THE BEST ESTIMATE BASED
 UPON RECENT FIXES IS 285/09.  EUGENE SHOULD BE STEERED ON A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ON THE
 SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
 CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
 SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
 THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS WHICH HAD
 BETTER INITIALIZATIONS OF THE STORM.
  
 UW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE 15-20 KT OF
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EUGENE.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
 SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LIKELY
 HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  LATE IN THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOME BUT EUGENE WILL BE REACHING
 PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AROUND THAT TIME.  A WEAKENING TREND
 SHOULD COMMENCE THEN...POSSIBLY AT A FASTER RATE BY DAY 5.  THE
 OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN
 BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  31/1500Z 11.0N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  01/0000Z 11.5N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  01/1200Z 12.2N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  02/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  02/1200Z 13.8N 107.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  03/1200Z 15.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  04/1200Z 16.5N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  05/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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