488 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 212036
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
 200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016
 
 Estelle is gradually weakening, with the convection warming west
 of the center during the past few hours. The initial intensity is
 set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
 SAB.  Further weakening is expected as Estelle will be moving over
 SSTs of less than 23C with an increase in shear, which should result
 in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post-
 tropical in about 24 hours, or even a little sooner.  The remnant
 low of Estelle is expected to dissipate after 72 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/14.  Estelle is being steered by
 a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central
 United States.  Estelle should continue moving around the periphery
 of the ridge and turn a bit more poleward by 36 hours, and this
 motion should continue through dissipation.  The new NHC track
 forecast is again adjusted to the left of the previous one
 following the latest trend in the guidance.  The official forecast
 is close to the latest ECMWF and lies a bit north of the new
 multi-model consensus aid TVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/2100Z 20.7N 129.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 21.4N 131.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 22.5N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  23/0600Z 23.9N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  23/1800Z 25.4N 139.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  24/1800Z 27.7N 143.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan