915 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 210234
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
 800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016
 
 Satellite images show that Estelle continues to display a small
 central dense overcast, and microwave data indicate the center is on
 the southern side of the cloud mass.  Satellite classifications are
 a bit lower than earlier, and the initial wind speed is set to 55
 kt. A combination of cooler waters, dry and stable air, and
 increasing shear should cause Estelle to gradually weaken over the
 next few days.  Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone
 in about 36 hours when it moves over SSTs around 22 deg C.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous
 forecast, lying close to the model consensus.
 
 Estelle is moving westward at about 12 kt, and is being steered by
 a strong subtropical ridge.  The storm is expected to turn west-
 northwestward tomorrow and then northwestward in a couple of days
 when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.  A continued
 northwestward motion is expected until the post-tropical cyclone
 dissipates in 4 to 5 days. There have been no significant changes to
 the guidance, and the new NHC track forecast is very close to the
 previous one.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/0300Z 19.5N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  21/1200Z 19.9N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  22/0000Z 20.8N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  22/1200Z 22.0N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  23/0000Z 23.5N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  24/0000Z 26.9N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  25/0000Z 30.5N 142.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake