286 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 182036
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016
 
 Banding features associated with Estelle have become a little
 better defined this afternoon, but the tropical storm still lacks
 an inner core.  In fact, this afternoon's ASCAT data continues to
 show a large radius of maximum winds.  Satellite classifications
 from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS have not changed much during the past
 24 hours, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt for this
 advisory.
 
 Estelle's refusal to intensify has likely been the result
 of shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air.  Since the shear
 appears to have decreased and the tropical storm is predicted to
 remain over warm water for another 36-48 h, one would think that
 Estelle should be able to strengthen and finally attain hurricane
 status.  However, this will likely be dependent on the cyclone
 consolidating inner-core convection, which is nearly impossible to
 forecast. It may sound like a broken record, but the NHC forecast
 once again calls for Estelle to become a hurricane during the next
 12 to 24 hours.  After 36 h, gradually decreasing SSTs and a less
 favorable thermodynamic environment should cause weakening. A faster
 rate of reduction in wind speed should occur later in the forecast
 period when the cyclone moves over SSTs below 24C, and Estelle is
 predicted to become post-tropical on day 4.
 
 Recent fixes indicate that Estelle continues to move west-
 northwestward.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from
 the previous advisory.  Estelle should continue west-northwestward
 for the next several days, then turn northwestward late in the
 forecast period, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  The
 track guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC
 forecast lies between the typically better performing global
 models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/2100Z 17.8N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  19/0600Z 18.3N 117.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  19/1800Z 18.8N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  20/0600Z 19.2N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  20/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  21/1800Z 21.2N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  22/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  23/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown