278 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 161446
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
 900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016
 
 Convective banding associated with Estelle continues to increase
 and become better organized, with a large band wrapping around the
 southwestern portion of the circulation, and broken bands of
 convection to the east and southeast of the center. Recent microwave
 and early-light visible satellite pictures indicate that the center
 of the tropical cyclone is located northeast of the earlier
 estimates, which required some relocation of Estelle for this
 advisory.  With the increase in organization, Dvorak T-numbers have
 responded accordingly, and support raising the initial intensity to
 45 kt.
 
 Estelle is forecast to remain in a moist and low wind shear
 environment during the next several days.  These conditions, along
 with warm water along the forecast track, should allow for
 strengthening, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane in a
 day or so.  After that time, the track forecast takes the cyclone
 just north of the cold wake left behind by previous hurricanes, and
 continued intensification is likely.  After 72 hours, the tropical
 cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters which should induce
 gradual weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
 various intensity models, and shows a peak intensity slightly
 higher than the SHIPS/LGEM guidance.
 
 Due to the relocation of the center, the initial motion estimate is
 a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt, which is slightly slower than before.
 Estelle is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during
 the next few days to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends
 westward from northern Mexico.  After that time, there is
 increasing spread in the guidance due to differences in the strength
 of the ridge.  The GFS depicts a weaker ridge after 72 hours due to
 a developing trough off the west coast of the United States and
 takes the tropical cyclone west-northwestward to northwestward near
 the end of the forecast period.  The ECMWF is on the southern side
 of the guidance envelope as it maintains more ridging and takes
 Estelle more westward.  The updated NHC track lies between these
 solutions and is close to the Florida State Superensemble.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 15.7N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  18/1200Z 17.2N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  19/1200Z 18.1N 117.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  20/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  21/1200Z 19.5N 126.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown