176 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 080840
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010
  
 CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
 WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO -82C AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
 TREND HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CENTRAL
 DENSE OVERCAST. THE CENTER HAS BEEN POSITIONED JUST NORTH
 OF THE COLDEST OVERSHOOTING TOPS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A 0248Z
 TRMM OVERPASS THAT REVEALED A COMPACT CYCLONE POSSESSING A
 SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5/55 KT. ALTHOUGH BRIEF BURSTS OF
 CONVECTION IN SUCH SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN RESULT IN A QUICK
 SPIN-UP OF THE WIND FIELD...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT FOR
 THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND NORTH OF
 THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND TRACK BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. THERE IS
 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE
 WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD KEEP THE
 CYCLONE MOVING ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BEYOND 
 THAT TIME THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND
 TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
 FLOW...AND COULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
 MONSOONAL FLOW BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
 CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
  
 SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
 AND ESTELLE COULD STILL REACH 60 KT INTENSITY. BY 24 HOURS...A
 GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE DUE TO A COMBINATION
 OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/0900Z 17.8N 110.3W    55 KT
  12HR VT     08/1800Z 17.9N 111.2W    55 KT
  24HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 112.3W    50 KT
  36HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N 113.3W    45 KT
  48HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N 114.2W    40 KT
  72HR VT     11/0600Z 17.9N 115.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     12/0600Z 17.2N 115.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     13/0600Z 16.4N 114.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART