863 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 070248
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010
  
 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEALED SEVERAL CURVED
 BANDS AND A DEVELOPING CDO.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
 HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.
 ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
 WARM WATER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
 EXPECTED.  THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CYCLONE
 BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
 FORECAST.  AFTER 48 HOURS...ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER
 WATER AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN.
  
 ESTELLE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE
 SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT
 APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. ONCE ESTELLE WEAKENS AND BECOME
 A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN EVEN
 MORE. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL TURN THE SYSTEM
 SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION...BUT FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0300Z 17.2N 106.2W    45 KT
  12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.8N 107.5W    55 KT
  24HR VT     08/0000Z 18.3N 109.0W    60 KT
  36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W    60 KT
  48HR VT     09/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W    55 KT
  72HR VT     10/0000Z 19.3N 112.2W    40 KT
  96HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN