465 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 191440
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004
  
 LATEST FIXES FROM SATELLITE AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
 CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT
 275/11. THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST TO
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EAST PACIFIC
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 17N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
 CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
 MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CAUSING A
 SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION
 DURING THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN INDICATE THE RIDGE
 REBUILDING NE OF HAWAII BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
 SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE WEST. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
 HAWAII IN FIVE DAYS. 
 
 LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ARE T2.0...30 KT...FROM TAFB AND
 SAB AND T1.5...25 KT...FROM AFWA. BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL-DEFINED
 NEAR THE CENTER BUT HAVE NOT INCREASED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE
 FIRST 48 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INTENSITY WILL
 BE HELD AT 55 KT BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. 
  
 FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/1500Z 11.7N 133.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.1N 134.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.9N 137.3W    45 KT
  36HR VT     21/0000Z 13.8N 139.8W    50 KT
  48HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W    55 KT
  72HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 154.5W    55 KT
  
  
 $$